STATE COLLEGE, Pa. — I hope you all had a restful, stress-free idle week. Penn State’s regular routine is back in swing, and that means we’re also one week closer to Penn State vs. Ohio State.
Based on your questions, I can tell you’re ready for the showdown in the Horseshoe as well.
Note: Some questions have been lightly edited.
How will Penn State beat Ohio State at the Horseshoe (not that OSU looks infallible, far from it; I just want to understand how you think the game will go based on what you’ve seen this season)? — Tim F.
In the preseason, I wrote that Penn State would go 11-1 with a win against Ohio State and a loss to Michigan. I’m still feeling pretty confident in that record, but maybe it’s the defense that makes winning the Michigan game in Beaver Stadium more realistic. We’ll see. My confidence level with the Penn State defense is much higher now than it was in August. I thought the Lions would have a very good defense, but right now they have a great one. Still, we need to see how it holds up against much better opponents (Ohio State and Michigan).
So, why in the world do I think Penn State will win in Columbus? My reasoning now is different from when I made the pick. I thought the Lions would have a potent offense capable of matching Ohio State strike for strike. I’m sticking with my pick because of the defense.
Saturday with no Penn State football: pic.twitter.com/YxwD6FpXrf
— Penn State Football (@PennStateFball) October 7, 2023
Yes, Ohio State’s receivers are tremendous, but Penn State should be able to get after Kyle McCord. I really think the defensive line will be a difference-maker in this game, and it’ll need to be. If Penn State’s D-line can’t win, then my pick will absolutely be wrong.
Keep in mind Penn State’s corners are super-talented. I think if there’s one defense that can limit some superb receivers — and by limit, I don’t mean erase from the game plan because that’s just not feasible — I think Kalen King and Johnny Dixon are good enough to do it.
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The other detail to remember is that neither offense has looked unstoppable thus far. For the first time in a long time, Ohio State has left the door cracked open against a program that it has found itself in highly competitive games with — even in years when Penn State had no business hanging around as long as it did. The Lions have closed the gap and have this year and next to capitalize on it.
Now, this won’t be a runaway by any stretch. Penn State is ranked 44th nationally in total offense (95th in yards per play) and Ohio State is 37th (20th in yards per play). Penn State is first in total defense (second in ypp), and Ohio State is sixth (fourth in ypp).
There have been growing pains with both offenses, which is expected with new starting quarterbacks. But both quarterbacks have been really smart with the football. Drew Allar has yet to commit a turnover in two years, and McCord has thrown just one interception in 142 pass attempts this season. Penn State leads the nation in turnover margin.
Now, this Penn State offense also hasn’t taken enough deep shots. That absolutely has to change. If the explosive element to this offense clicks — and it can given the protection up front and the talent of receiver KeAndre Lambert-Smith and running backs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen — then the Lions will find themselves in another close game against Ohio State. Still, I think Manny Diaz’s defense is what tilts this one slightly in Penn State’s favor.
Are we overlooking the fact that Penn State is currently No. 1 in the nation in time of possession? A facet that has plagued Penn State when leading against the likes of Ohio State and Michigan in recent years. Explosive plays are important, but the way Penn State has been manhandling opponents in TOP, it gives me hope Penn State will maintain and hold a lead against OSU/Michigan. — Grant G.
Time of possession is absolutely notable. You’re right. There have been many instances when Penn State has needed to be able to grind the clock in the past decade and it’s been problematic. There’s a nastiness to the offensive and defensive lines right now that hasn’t always been the case.
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It’s also weird to me that Penn State is so good with time of possession and yet the very thing I thought the offense would excel at — being explosive — is the area for concern. The script has been flipped this season. To me, the scary idea is what happens if the Lions can do both? What if they can grind out the tough yards but also hit on some of these chunk gains?
If that comes together then we’re talking about a College Football Playoff team. There’s so much potential on this offense, and it’s just not all hitting right now. The luxury of having a defense like this is it also allows the offense time to work itself out.
What if anything can Penn State do to keep Manny Diaz as the DC? Especially if the defense plays a major role in a win against one of the big two (OSU/Michigan). — Anonymous
The ball will be in Manny’s court on this one. If the right head-coaching opportunity comes open this offseason, then Diaz will have a decision to make. He’s been really open since he got here about wanting to be a head coach again. There’s nothing Penn State can do financially to keep him if it’s about running his own program as opposed to being a highly coveted DC.
Now, could it be enticing for Diaz to stay another year given the talent Penn State is in line to return? Absolutely. But head-coaching jobs that fit whatever Diaz’s criteria are don’t come along all the time. There’s also no guarantee next season would go any better for him here, either.
Is there any chance the nonconference schedule gets upgraded? I don’t see anything remotely interesting on the horizon. The West Virginia win could turn out to be a big help if there’s a bunch of similar records come playoff selection time. — Matt B.
James Franklin surprised me last year a few minutes after the Auburn win. He essentially said a series like that wouldn’t be happening again, and he sounded angry that it even happened in the first place. That surprised me, but also I understand his thinking.
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There’s even more reason right now to keep the nonconference schedule as vanilla as possible. Franklin’s goal is to put his team in the best position to make the Playoff and then make a run at it all. Given the new-look, 18-team Big Ten, there’s just no need to schedule marquee nonconference games. There will be plenty of big-time opponents guaranteed every year. Trying to manage snap counts and get everyone as healthy as possible in those nonconference games will be critical. It feels a bit like an NFL preseason schedule, and then once Week 1 hits, or in this case Big Ten games, the real fun begins.
Penn State’s 2024 schedule, released late last week, is certainly loaded with marquee opponents. The Lions play Ohio State, Washington, UCLA, USC, Wisconsin, Purdue, Minnesota, Illinois and Maryland. On top of that, they go to Morgantown, too.
The geographic rivalries are what make this sport so great, but there’s just no room for them in the current landscape. If the Big Ten weren’t playing nine conference games then there’s a case to be made about getting another marquee game in there. But with a nine-game league schedule, the Lions won’t be lining up any huge series in the foreseeable future.
How much do teams actually “hold back” their offensive playbook? I feel like this is a common excuse for highly ranked teams that don’t pass the eye test early on, but is it even valid? — Daniel B.
I’m guaranteeing you there are small wrinkles still to come that we haven’t seen yet. That’s the norm. But I’m pretty sure most of what we’ve seen in games thus far from the offense is what we’ll see. I don’t think we’re going to see anything drastically different in the second half of the season.
I do think we’ll see a package for Beau Pribula at some point, largely because Franklin has not-so-subtly hinted at it so much that it seems inevitable. We can look at the short-yardage plays with Penn State using the tush push right now, and that’s something we didn’t see the first few games this season or last. They can do a lot out of the T-formation, too.
Besides unveiling gadget-type plays and a few wrinkles, the rest of the offense is more about execution than suddenly unveiling something else. They need to be more explosive, and they know it. For whatever reason — and some of it is the way teams have been playing them — that hasn’t materialized. They’ve shown they can win by controlling the ball. Now, they need to tap into ways to have more chunk plays while also still being efficient and able to grind the clock.
Help make sense of the receiver room. I don’t think we have a legit No. 1 receiver. I understand all the churn in the receiver room with new coaches every couple of years … but that doesn’t explain why someone like Dante Cephas is still struggling this year. I had high hopes for Cephas. — Anonymous
Lambert-Smith is the top receiver, and Harrison Wallace, whom they need to get back on the field healthy, is second. Not having Wallace for much of this season so far has probably been more problematic than many realize. The staff was raving about him all offseason, and it looked like for good reason. He’s going to be a big-play threat once he’s back to full health, which seems like it will be soon. Franklin mentioned Wallace was essentially going to be full-go against Northwestern, but he tweaked his injury during the game, which is why we didn’t see more of him. Wallace was practicing during the idle week, so that’s a good sign.
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There are two key details to keep in mind when discussing the performance of Cephas so far. The first is that he wasn’t here for spring practice. In many ways he’s still playing catchup with a new quarterback and a new offense. The learning curve is unfolding right before our eyes.
At one practice during the idle week, there was a teachable moment when Franklin pulled Cephas aside after a rep to point out where he should put his hand in order not to get flagged when trying to create separation. There are a lot of those teachable moments happening as he makes the leap to this level. It’s a big transition.
The other detail is that Cephas is still adjusting to playing with Allar. There have been some rockets from the sophom*ore, and just getting the timing and understanding and knowledge between QB and WR takes some time. Now, at what point does this become problematic if they’re not on the same page? This week, leading up to and including the UMass game, could be important for Cephas. They need to establish this connection and get him some confidence before heading to Ohio State. If it doesn’t materialize this week, then they’ll need Lambert-Smith and Wallace to carry this receiving corps.
(Photo of Dante Cephas: Matthew O’Haren / USA Today)
